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Photograph by Frederic J. Brown/AFP/Getty Images
There was no question that oil prices would rally after the United States assassinated top Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani on Thursday night. Any conflict in the Middle East is bound to shock oil markets higher, because it threatens to destabilize the center of the global oil market.
But the size of the rally and its impact on particular stocks are unique to this conflict and the recent history of oil price movements.
Brent
crude futures rose 3.8% to $68.84 a barrel in Friday morning trading, and futures on West Texas Intermediate, or
WTI,
the market benchmark in the U.S., gained 3.7% to $63.44.
Recent history is affecting Friday’s move. The latest similar oil spike occurred on Sept. 16, the first trading day after a series of attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure. Brent jumped 20% after the attacks to $71.95, before slipping back below $70. Within two weeks, oil prices had retraced all of their gains, and the stocks that had followed the commodity higher had plunged.
That has left traders a little wary of chasing a rally that is based on geopolitical considerations that are difficult to predict.
“We expect a near term increase in commodity prices to favor U.S. E&Ps, particularly high beta name where there is also a fair amount of short interest as well,” wrote RBC Capital Markets analyst Scott Hanold in a note on Friday. “However, investors could be a bit more gun shy given how quickly equities retraced following the Saudi attack in September.”
Oil is unlikely to move above those previous highs without more evidence that Soleimani’s killing will lead to reprisals. A conflict could draw in other Middle East players, including Saudi Arabia, which blamed the oil- infrastructure attacks on Iran.
“Oil prices still have room to run up another 5-10%, but are currently struggling breaking out beyond the September high that came from the Saudi oil field attack,” wrote Edward Moya, an analyst at currency broker OANDA, in an email to Barron’s. “Right now, oil is surging on the belief we will see a continued tit-for-tat response in the region that will ultimately deliver some disruptions in production. The next major move in oil may depend on the Iranians’ response. Any attacks on oil vessels or facilities will likely keep prices surging.”
Oil producers with high leverage were rising the most on Friday, because they are most sensitive to changes in oil prices.
Whiting Petroleum
(WLL), a highly leveraged oil producer, jumped 11% to $8.04
Moves in the stocks of larger oil companies were more subdued.
Exxon Mobil
(XOM) stock was down slightly in late morning, after rising in early trading. Those companies are still dependent on oil prices, but their business models include areas like refining that can move in the opposite direction of oil. Refining stocks like Valero (VLO) were down on Friday.
While small and midcap energy names have seen outsized moves, Hanold thinks investors will gravitate to larger operators that aren’t likely to be as volatile but can still benefit from higher prices.
“We expect investors to continue to focus on larger cap names and ones that have higher cash flow sensitivity to moves in crude oil as well as no exposure to production in the Middle East such as
Continental Resources
(CLR),
Devon Energy
(DVN),
Marathon Oil
(MRO), and
EOG Resources
(EOG).”
But companies with facilities in the Middle East could be challenged as tensions rise.
Noble Energy
(NBL), for instance, has a major gas operation off of the Israeli coast. Its stock was up just 0.4% on Friday.
Write to Avi Salzman at [email protected]
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